Archive for the ‘Economics’ Category

Protect Internet Freedom – NOW

Published by John on January 18th, 2012

Just in case you’ve missed it , congress is working on a law called the “Stop Online Piracy Act,” and a partner law, the “Protect IP Act.”   It’s why Google has the big black thing on their logo, and why Wikipedia is blacked out.   I’ll give you the gist based on what I read in the two acts (and not simply a bunch of news articles):

  • The Stop Online Piracy Act (SOPA – HR 3261) allows the government to take action against a person, making them personally liable, for anything on a web site they own or run that contains anything perceived to violate copyright.  Who decides?  Anyone who thinks that a site violates copyright and puts a phone call into their Attorney General or Department of Justice.  The government is then REQUIRED to put out a court order, take legal action, and then sort out the details.  (Translate: shoot first, ask questions later.)
  • The Protect IP Act (S.968) is even more far reaching, requiring search engines like Google to censor content out of their index.  It also requires the government to shut down a site first, and ask questions later.  In fact, Protect IP will provide the means for the government to shut down a site, the site’s owner may not know for hours, days, or weeks what happened or why.  (Translation: shoot and be sure the guy is dead first, then let God sort it out.)
As a musician and a web guy, I’ve always been in favor of intellectual copyright protection.  I still am.  It’s the right thing to do, and it’s good for business.  Creative people work hard, they create stuff we like to buy, and we should buy it instead of stealing it.
SOPA and Protect IP don’t protect IPs or Stop Online Piracy.  Instead, it gives the government unilateral control of all IPs and becomes the Imperial Wizard of American Internet Content.  It creates a HUGE government censorship complex responsible for monitoring IP addresses, and deciding which sites get to stay and which have to come down.  These two laws empower our government to sue and jail anyone who stands in their way.    It will turn the Internet into a huge police state, run by our benevolent Department of Justice.
Less government is better than more government.  It costs less.  It takes politicians out of our personal lives.  Our government is hosting wars in several countries.  The dollar isn’t worth the paper it’s written on.  Washington spends far more than it takes in.  But our government can’t stop doing stuff like that, so instead, it will take money from the big media outlets and go into the internet censorship business.
SOPA and Protect IP aren’t going to help internet favorites like Facebook, Google/YouTube, Twitter, and Zynga.  These laws will kill internet startups, small creative groups, new bands, independent filmmakers, young artists, and the proverbial internet “little guy,” (or “little gal” if you prefer).  These laws WILL help huge media companies kill competition, control all innovation, and use the profits to support politicians through the infamous Super-PACs that work diligently for both sides of the political aisle.  Those responsible for sustaining the Internet Police State will be given an endless supply of offender intelligence by the media companies, whose new and improved profit margins will support a cadre of individuals responsible for watching their competition and feeding intel to the government.
Yes, the Internet is the Wild West, and bad things have happened to good people.  The Internet is utterly out of control.  That’s how it was designed.  It is OUR responsibility to conduct ourselves honestly and stand for positive change.  This law won’t just kill the NEXT Google, Wikipedia, Facebook and Twitter, it will kill the ones we have right now.  It would be just plain stupid for us to enact a gargantuan law, spawning yet another government regulatory institution, to take away the last level playing field on the planet.

1 in 6 in poverty, and still waiting for the “AHA!”

Published by John on September 16th, 2011

Reporting people below the poverty line is generally bad politics if you’re in office.  So it’s no surprise that the latest Census statistics brought on a spate of initiatives.  But I’m still waiting to hear a really good idea.

When the US Census Bureau came out with the numbers the other day  that 1 in 6 Americans lived below the poverty line, it caught my attention.  As I read further, I discovered that experts have long agreed that the “poverty line” is well below what it should be.  The Government sets it at about $22k for a family of four, and $11k for a single person.  I suspect that readers will agree that it’s just about impossible to raise a family of four – heck, even live alone – for $22k, especially in the northeast.

The causes were as expected; high fuel prices, economic collapse, joblessness.  News at 11.

So let’s say the poverty line for the northeast is realistically around $40k for a family of 4, and $20k for a single person.  That puts the poverty line for me, with a family of 3, at $30k.  Let’s just say my family has seen that particular number from above and below.  My business is doing reasonably well, and I’m working in a job I love.  I work 6 or 7 days a week, and am grateful to have a job at all.  Isn’t this “the pursuit of happiness” Jefferson talked about in the Declaration of Independence?

From the left we hear proposals for new government programs.  I have read quite a bit of the President’s proposed jobs bill.  Some interesting ideas, and lots of regulations to support the programs.  Many of the jobs will be short term, but I speak from experience – that’s not such a big deal when you’re unemployed.  Unfortunately, we’re trillions in debt, and trillions in deficit, with no realistic way to pay for the programs we have, much less any new ones.  It reminds me of the time my neighbor said to me, “Darn.  My tomato plants are being choked out by weeds. I think I’ll throw on more fertilizer!”

From the right we hear, “cut taxes.”  And for the most part, “cut taxes” requires spending offsets.  Unfortunately, the first candidates are usually the social safety nets and the Department of Education, and anyone who proposes cuts to the Department of Defense is accused of being anti-American.   Well, like it or not, the net result of cuts to social safety nets will effectively abandon the urban poor.   It’s not realistic to hope these folks go out and get jobs, because the jobs aren’t there to get.  And it’s hard to get over the mythical $22k hump on minimum wage, believe me.  (A year’s take at minimum wage in CT, for example, is $16,500.)

Now, the Department of Education (USDE)?  Well, that’s a thought that may have some potential.  The USDE doesn’t provide education funding, it regulates it.  It doesn’t develop new and innovative practices, so much as it regulates what is used and isn’t.  Any funding from Washington for education comes from congress, goes through each state’s bureaucracy, and trickles down to the poorest districts.  Most districts are funded by local property taxes, and managed by local boards.  Local boards, for the most part, are responsible for hiring, firing, and/or managing a Superintendent, passing the district’s education budget along to the municipality, and insuring compliance with USDE, SDE, local, and union regulations.  I speak here from 20 years experience in the field.  But of course, anyone who recommends that we so much as reduce the size of the USDE is accused of being anti-intellectual and wanting to return to the one-room schoolhouse.

Just so you have a few facts, here is how the government spent it’s money in 2010, by category.  (This is from Wikipedia, so you know it has to be accurate, right?)

Category$ in billions% of GDP% of Spending
Health Care$1,028.807.09%22%
Pensions$939.206.47%20%
Education$887.306.12%19%
Defense$848.105.85%18%
Welfare$727.305.01%15%
Interest$296.302.04%6%
Totals:$4,72732.58%100%

Before my critics tee off on me, I don’t want to see any of the following:

  • Grandma choosing between medicine  or food (Pensions),
  • my family choosing between eating and going to the doctor (Health Care),
  • my child growing up ignorant and learning math on a pile of lead paint and rubble (Education),
  • barbarian hordes overrunning our land (Defense),
  • the poor starving in the streets (Welfare), or
  • the Chinese foreclosing on our nation (Interest).

I do hope that someday we can graduate from an emotionally charged electorate to an educated one.  Right now, the average American media consumer is educated in sex and blood, because that’s what sells.  Congressman Weiner’s sexting, or Sarah Palin’s marital issues, are not priorities for me, nor should they be for our country.  And god help us all, our obsession with Lindsay Lohan or the late Amy Winehouse is downright sick.  Escapism is one thing, but this isn’t news.

So, I have a thought.  Let’s try reading. Then, let’s talk.

I read the news daily.  Yes, I get it on line, and yes, it’s free.  Yes, it’s biased, so I deliberately seek out conservative and liberal opinions on major issues.  I don’t wonder whether the media are lying to me to promote an agenda – I assume they are.  I learned a long time ago that “truth” and “fact” are two very different concepts, so I gather as much fact as I can find in the hope that I’ll find a genuine truth.  I love my screaming liberal friends, and my right-wing nut job friends, and encourage debate about politics, religion, education, parenting – stuff that matters.

I don’t fear a conservative electorate, I don’t fear a liberal electorate.  I fear an emotional, unthinking electorate that has lost hope and come to terms with ignorance.  I fear a cowardly electorate who is uncomfortable with difficult conversations, who would rather talk about celebrities and Survivor because, in the end, that stuff doesn’t really matter.

So, do you have an idea of how to get us out of this financial mess?


Apple: More Cash than the USA, More Value than Exxon/Mobil. Part cool, part scary.

Published by John on August 10th, 2011

Apple: More cash on hand than the US Federal Reserve.

There are some headlines that make you stop and ponder for a minute.  This was certainly one.

As of last week, the creators of the Macintosh computer, the iMac, iPhone, the iPod, the iPad…the iEverything, had more cash on hand than the United States of America.    No kidding.

Then today, for a few hours, they passed Exxon/Mobil as the world’s most valuable company.  Sure, they were only about $1.5 billion more valuable, and by day’s end Exxon/Mobil was back in the lead by about $7 billion.  (A billion here, a billion there…before you know it we’re talking about real money!)

The cool part: More valuable than Exxon/Mobil.  I have to drive a car, but I’ve never been much in love with the oil industry.  So, it was nice to see my beloved makers of the Macintosh be named a “player” on this very elite stage.  It was a bit like watching my Mets in 1986, only without the big hair.

The scary part: For a few days, Apple had more cash on hand than the United States Federal Reserve.  That is, until we decide to print some more.  (OK, I know that Quantitative Easing is about saying we have more money without actually printing it, but the result is pretty much the same.)

I used my first Macintosh to prepare my senior thesis at Boston University in 1988, and have been hooked ever since.  Through the flush and lean times, I’ve stayed with the Mac, and my loyalty has paid off.  I don’t work for Apple.  In fact, the one time I applied for a gig with them they turned me down.  But, they make products that simply make sense, and they always have.  I still use Apple products, and suggest them to my friends.

But nobody – and I mean NOBODY – should have more cash on hand than the United States Government.  Shame on us.  I’m sure Apple wasn’t the first company to hit this mark, but…damn.  Something feels pretty “upside down” about that.

To borrow from President Lincoln, we are, and always must be, a government of, by, and for the people.  They reflect our best and worst, and right now they don’t reflect us very well.

The world markets are reacting like a fearful child after mom and dad have a big argument.  The government fights, our credit is downgraded, and our leaders blame the ratings agencies.  Our markets drop 10% in a week.  The Fed promises two years of no interest hikes, and the market takes about a third of it back in a day.  And if you haven’t noticed, London and environs continues to burn.

Changes aren’t ‘coming,’ folks.  They’re right here, right now.  And I don’t quite know how to figure it out.  Well, at least I know my Macintosh will keep running, no matter what.  Let’s just hope I don’t lose electricity.

 

John Tusch stays up at night and thinks about stuff like this.  



Numbers don’t lie. But sometimes they hurt your feelings.

Published by John on August 9th, 2011

Over the past year I’ve lost a whole bunch of weight.  Then there were times, like the past 2 weeks, when the scale said my weight was moving in the other direction.  I think I need a new scale.  This one seems very unreliable.  Don’t you agree?

Economics and politics have always mixed, so the response to S&P’s downgrade and Moody’s threat of a downgrade isn’t all that surprising.  Politicians have to say something, and it costs no political capital to shoot the messenger.  Connecticut Junior Senator Richard Blumenthal was quoted in The Patch this morning as saying:

“The downgrade of U.S. Treasury bonds by one of the rating agencies, S&P, certainly undermines and adds greater doubt about the credibility and integrity of that rating agency, and maybe some of the others.”

Treasury Secretary Geitner had the following response to S&P:

“S&P has shown really terrible judgment and they’ve handled themselves very poorly,” he said in an exclusive interview with CNBC. “And they’ve shown a stunning lack of knowledge about basic U.S. fiscal budget math. And I think they drew exactly the wrong conclusion from this budget agreement.”

At the same time, the New York Stock Exchange, the European exchanges, and the Asian exchanges all took a huge tumble on Monday, and I read that we’re not nearly out of the woods yet.  Pretty much the whole globe is selling off.  Our country owes trillions of dollars to China, whose government pretty much hates our guts.  I’m left scratching my very bald head.  Can anyone explain to me how S&P is to blame?

18 months ago my cholesterol was through the roof, and I was fat enough to provide my own gravitational field for the last 2 shuttle missions.  Much as I wanted to blame bad genetics and my wife’s good cooking, I found out that didn’t change anything.  I had to change.  55 pounds and 100 points of cholesterol later, things were better.  Then I slipped out of good habits into bad ones, and whadaya know?!  I need to make a change again.

I’m ready to listen to more than one proposal to get us out of this mess.  And I’m certainly no expert.  But I don’t think that S&P is to blame.

 

John Tusch is just a guy from Sandy Hook, CT.  The title is a quote he borrowed from a friend of his.